- Ban did lose one encouragement to a “no opinion”. We assume that this is either the US or the UK, given their current statements.
- Shashi Tharoor lost two encouragements to “no opinion”. Who is softening.
- The Latvian did well. We can assume that her support is the 5 Europeans and the US. One more could include Japan. This is a strong performance but completely explicable. Indeed, the real question for her is how to increase her support. We do not believe it is possible without a fundamental restructuring of the race. In any case, what is she after?
- Zeid, Surakiart Sathirathai, and Dhanapala have failed as candidates. They should get out and stop wasting their countries’ time and money. Sathirathai or Dhanapala exits might open the possibility of other entrances.
- It is too early to tell about Ghani, but we have trouble imagining him go anywhere.
The real questions to be answered at this point are:
- Can Ban be stopped? There are two scenarios where he would not be selected. Ultimately, they both probably must occur.
- A better candidate emerges. A new ASEAN candidate could introduce this scenario.
- A fault emerges that gives the US and UK (probably need both) to sustain the diplomatic pressure associated with vetoes. We believe that evidence of vote buying could, under some circumstances, be this issue.
- What is Shashi Tharoor trying to get out of this? We have recently heard the theory that he is really running for Foreign Minister of India, where the UNSG race is a gambit to increase Indian leverage for a UNSC permanent seat. In essence, they would stop pushing Tharoor to in exchange for Chinese (and Russian?) commitments to support India’s seat.
- What is the Latvian trying to get out of this? We do not have a theory for this yet.
We look forward to seeing how this evolves.